Onset of demise

How often an empire was built from courage that breeds from war, and how often its demise started from the negligence during peace. It has never been changed, from the ancient kingdom to modern conglomerate. It will never be changed, due to the fundamental human weakness: complacency. Failure breeds success, success breeds complacency, and complacency leads to collapse.

Where is the prophecy to predict the onset of demise? History, as history will repeat itself, as long as the fundamental weakness exists. It is a little bit funny though, in spite of super advancement in science, technology, business and virtually every areas, this weakness is still so STRONG.

Look at the common notion about stories of successful models or whatsoever, and compare with the universal perception about alarms of possible crisis. Don't you think peoples are more interested in knowing the former one although the latter one may hold more truths? Shouldn't it be more critical to know how not to fail first before pursuing the knowledge of how to success? Yet peoples are quick to criticize warnings if it didn't turn out right(or didn't turn out right fast enough for them to realize), while do not question hard enough on successes, even when these success are short-lived (which means they shouldn't be hailed in the first place as they are bound to fail as they capitalize on long-term benefit to create illusionary success) or subjected to survivorship bias.

It has been proven psychologically that, human tends to attribute success to own efforts while put the blame on environment for failures (self-serving bias), though the reverse scenario are more likely.

On top of this, perhaps it is even harder to realize that things could take million years to build, but just need a second to be ruined. Infallible? What a damn good joke.

Recent reads

Have red two books recently, but would like to just do a quick summary but not thorough analysis here, as I shouldn't have put too much time on here. May re read them in the future.

1. Freakonomics by steven d.levitt and stephen j.dubner

- Peel off one layer or two of seemingly logical "common sense" by applying statistical tools of econonics to determine the direction of correlation and discover hidden links.

- Human works for incentive and that's what economist interested to figure out and model it, from micro to macro.

- Examples touched on:
a) school teachers - cheating?
b) sumo wrestlers - match rigging?
c) Ku Klux Klan - incoherence of roles exposed lead to its demise
d) real-estate agent - incentives work against you?
e) drug dealers - except the top mafias, most don't earn enough, but endure and hope to make it big one day
f) criminal rate fall - self-contradicting explains from so-called experts and hidden link with abortion legalization
g) parenting - does nurturing / parenting really matter?

2. The origin of brands by al & laura ries

- A fascinating book from marketing gurus that build its theme around the law of natural selection in business world - divergence. It argues that like natural selection, products and brands expand in such a way that split into more and more branches, instead of convergence. This book gives a lot of examples and it's definitely eye-opening even though you may not agree with the central theme 100%.

- Different technologies do not converge, but each technology split further into more sophisticated field to cater for niche market.

- Convergence may not always fail when value of convenience are created but convenience only has small roles to play in the overall business market.

Pessimism of the will

"Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will."

Came across this motto in the newspaper and like it so much. It is like speaking out something that I want to say for long, in such a clear fashion.

I don't like the general notion of the exclusivitity of pessimism and optimism. For me both co-exist and fluctuate interchangebly, it's only as of this moment which end do you incline towards. But that's not the main theme here. Compare the motto with the following:

"Optimism of the fool, pessimism of the will."

and you will know why I shouted eureka.

As the old Chinese saying goes, no one can live without worries. The question is, which aspect of life should you worry and how do you face it and conquer it. Worries don't really kill but avoidance and ignorance kill.

And hence, to me, first sentence is a powerful and motivating motto; while second sentence, is nothing more than lazy escapism. Let's face it, life is not always a bed of roses. Quality time does not always has to be lying on the bed, and rest is the reward for hardwork, but not an end by itself.

Pessimism of the intellect spots unavoidable problems and brings forward the necessary worries, for the optimism of the will to plan strategies and solutions.

Two useful sites for investment knowledge

These two local sites can help you to grasp solid knowledge and insights about investment ideas and tools.

http://www.moneytalk.sg/

http://www.wisewealthbook.com/

There is another book that I recommended to another friend who asked me on how to start studying investment. You can borrow it from any library.

"Financial services in singapore - Tan Chwee Huat"

Sometimes I feel like sharing out of what I have learnt but I think at this infant stage, I would be better off spending time to read and absorb instead of writing out to share. Without the vast knowledge and experience, my work may look like a rubbish as compared to those blog articles.

And hence, I recommend you to read both sites as the starting point of your endeavour, if you, too, would like to embark on the same quest.

Currently I am reading on ETF, while some friends are studying CFD and options on equities. Looking forward to leverage the knowledge gained across.

缓步前进

自由了接近两个星期。我并没有全力以赴地作地产经纪，而是在多方面缓步前进。现在的没有事做，和被聘请着时的没有事做，差了个词：收入。偶尔会为无收入而忧心忿忿，但我知道万事起步难，既然釜已破了舟已沉了，就应该沉得住气。虽然我不是分秒都在做着与赚钱有关的活动，但至少我没有在浪费时间。

这一年，是拿来流浪进修的，能否挖到金只是其中一项考验。累积知识、增长见识、克服心魔、寻找方向和破除云雾，用时间来全面升华生活，为人生的下三季奠基，才是我的终极目标。

成人礼

二十五岁，两次丧礼，两次转职，毕业后的一年半，像是在过成人礼。不知死，焉知生？人生漫漫，路有千百条，叠在不同的脚印上，要怎么走？

有幸看到灵堂前的猫哭老鼠，真长见识。死后一切尘归尘，土归土，究竟什么重要，什么次要，
什么虚幻，什么实在？我已不再幻想寻找真理的鸦片管，也不渴望最后的救赎。

做好自己，扶助他人，心宽性灵，问心少愧，管它天堂地狱，一切重在今世。

悼

接到噩耗，火速回家。其实这事早已在大家的预料之中，只是当那刻到来时，仍会带来冲击。当电话另一端传来母亲少有的哭泣声，我的心情变得好沉重。

于是隔了数个月，我坐了第一次的飞萤机飞回家，回去见他的最后一面，回去给已渐老迈的母亲精神上的安慰。父亲说隔了一层之痛至少相差一半，而我这个隔了一层又隔了一代的，又相差多少呢？我不知道，但我尽量去找寻记忆，尽管不多。

除了每年例常的红包，他给过我不少张邮票，但我忘了是谁在我年轻喜欢收集邮票时和他说我有这个嗜好，是母亲吗？还是父亲？琳琅满目的各国邮票，当时让我如获珍宝；只是我已经很久没回去我的房间了，很久没掀开堆放在那里的邮票簿。现在翻阅，或许我已不记得哪一张是他送的，哪一张不是。

尽管相处的机会不多，但我大约能联想到他怎样走过。他年轻时挖过矿，毕竟前一代的人都是刻苦耐劳做日晒雨淋的工作来养家，不是挖锡米洗琉琅，就是伐木开桥造路。母亲在嫁出门前，没和他说过几句话，是因为他那时的脾气很暴躁？还是因为那时候的思想，还是封建的男尊女卑？

但当我偶尔和他一起上升旗山时，那时候接近九十高龄的他已是很慈祥。走到一半，他突然走去路旁伸手摘下不知名的叶子，折成一半拿去嘴边舔了舔，然后和我说以前的人生病就会来摘草药，只要叶汁不涩，就不会有毒。他摘了另一片递给我，我迟疑了一会才接过来折了舔一舔，的确没有苦味。自然我没有问为什么他知道这种叶子没有毒。

于是我开始听他慢慢谈起他年轻时的爬山经历，明白了为什么老虎是山中之王，因为它只要低声一吼，就能传遍全山震慑人心。听着听着，我仿佛看到了他过去活跃的青春。一大班朋友，定时定期攀山越岭，从这个山头跑到那个山头，从那个山头跑去另一个山头，一路上挥汗如雨天南地北，那是多么恣意的年华。他的眼神，自然地流露出自信自豪和一丝丝的怀念……那一段日子，或许是他人生里最享受的岁月吧。

无奈岁月催人老，时间总有无情停止的一天。他当初的朋友们，有多少早已先去，至仅剩聊聊数人来致悼。坐夜时，看到一个年龄相近的老婆婆独自默默地来，独自默默地走。看着缓缓远去的那头白发，我在内心揣测，那时候的她，心情会有多复杂呢？原来，这才叫凄凉。先走的，少了享受的岁月；后走的，多了无尽的唏嘘。

千古不变，唯生老病死。吵吵闹闹坠下来，安安静静沉下去。当死亡带走生气，四周都变得肃静，是为默哀。

安息吧，阿公。

HP Procurement Engineer - I

Good bye Alexandra, and here ends my 11-month stay in ATP-B. It has not been even a year , but I believe I have learnt and gained much experience and insights about work, than some others that may need more than a year to achieve.

It is not my abilities, but rather special situations that have made me grow from near drowning. Just merely after the first lunch in the company with friends (instead of with boss), I was told that tomorrow, which was only my second day of work, I had to go to a place in Johor.

"Supplier's factory."

"How do I go?"

"Look for Nigel, he knows how to travel there." (Who's Nigel?)

"Can I have his number?"

"Hi, Nigel, this is..., ..., and ... so where should I wait for you?"

"HPAM, 452, in front of the shuttle bus waiting area." (What's HPAM? Where's shuttle bus area)

So I was given an unknown task, to meet up with an unknown person and to go into an unknown area. And I did not have too many minutes to hesitate for calling the "unknown person", asking for more details, nor did I have too much time to wander around because the first place to know was not my office but the HPAM area. Luckily I still had Luke to show me around.

Hence on second day I sat on the car together with Nigel and went into CJH. Celestica Johor. Every steps in the factory, everything that I saw, every person that I met, were new and unfamiliar.

"So, do you have any questions? If you have questions you can just ask, I will try my best to tell you all."

"Not at this moment, you just tell me whatever you can recall."

Keeping my head down, I was just too busy jotting down every names, processes, stations, abbreviations, states, situations, problems, solutions, or basically every words, be it related or not because I wouldn't know.

My worries started to creep in. Two more weeks and I had to take over the plant transfer and manage it. How would it turn out? Would I be fine? I had no idea. Without any technical background and prior working relationship with the supplier, I could only pray that these two weeks to move slowly.

It wasn't really a tough period as I could still tag along Nigel and learn as much and quick as I can. But I know I have to walk every quick steps very carefully in order not to slip. I had only one day to go back to company on the second week, to get everything (badge, email, digital key and remote access) done, so that I could work in supplier's factory.

Luckily suppliers are nice peoples. Maybe because I am their customer, or maybe because I am a Malaysian. Though working hour was long and tiring, I could still handle it. I worked for 11 days continuously since the first day. I spotted the Mod0 capacity issue as a gating for mass production run and raised it before it became critical. You may wonder why it was me as a new arrive to have spotted this, that's because you have no idea how messy and chaotic the whole factory was, where every working men had been stretched to the fullest, chased and expediated for different objectives.

And then came the storm during the X'mas shutdown period. PCB quality issue had caused two high yield losses and line downs, created the lime light from the world and attracted boss's boss to travel down. Worked until 5am once. Dealt with two bosses directly. Daily update. Maybe it's normal for a seasoned colleague, but for a fresh graduate like me, I just felt it's quite stressful sometimes, especially at the moment of receiving sms-es from bosses in the morning. Nevertheless I did rise to the occasion, done what I should have done, and learnt quite a few important things in this work.

It was especially delightful to receive a compliment from a US folk whom I had forgot his name, that "I think you have done pretty well. If I were you, coming out fresh from the oven, I would have stumbled and crumbled." Even if he was just being kind, I have been strongly encouraged. Because I never like the idea of using "freshness" as an excuse to avoid responsiblity or accountability. People may excuse my mistakes due to my inexperience and rawness but it is just not something that I should rely on.

I have no complaints of what I had to go through, nor did I complain to others about my manager for putting me into such situation. I rationalize things and only grumble if things could have been done in a better way. In this case, I don't see any other option. If it wasn't for this, perhaps in the first case I would not have been hired, wasn't it? In fact, later when I finally befriended most of my colleagues, I even played down their tones against my manager in gossiping talks, because their opinions were off the mark though were out of good heart, as they did not have the whole picture in mind.

Of course I did sigh and moan sometimes, but that's more to relieve my emotions.

And hence the first month of super steep learning had finally passed. My hardest earnt monthly salary so far.

<书籍>山寨风暴

在短时间内翻阅了“苹果奇迹”和这本“山寨风暴”，接触到一点现代企业的发迹发展、物资流动、行销网络、产业链和其他方面的知识，但还要花一段长时间才能粗略掌握全貌。

尽管我还没读懂整本书，但其中一段灼见让我如拾珍宝深思良久，特于此分享。

“跨国企业的CEO在2008年之前的薪酬高得吓人。根据统计，美国2007年百大企业CEO的年均收入是1440万美元。他们过去为赢得自己的高薪常玩的游戏是，不管内外环境如何变化，一味设立每年的盈利成长目标，好为自己追求高额分红利益。

而为达成这个不利企业长期发展的目标，他们的作法有两大招术：一是在其国内的工厂如果达不到利润要求的水准就关厂，将单子移到国外厂去生产；二是逼迫国外委托代工厂压低利润，很少想到改善自己的营业能力与考量合作厂商的合理利益。当然，这些跨国企业CEO的超高薪酬一定是由消费者买单。”

如此简单易明的潜规则，也难怪他们乐此不疲。如是的伎俩，叫管理吗？如是的浅见，是领导吗？当“成长大于一切”已经在被反思时，CEO一味以“盈利成长”的单方向号召前进，不惜牺牲企业长期的利益，竭泽求鱼只为中饱私囊，杀鸡取卵只为一己私红，合什么理？

过去十年间，高层经理人的综合薪酬涨幅惊人，而员工的薪酬涨幅还不如通膨率。而在这十年间，企业的成长率是否同样高，足以合理化他们的涨幅？这些涨幅，恐怕不是由书籍里所说的，由消费者买单，而是由辛辛苦苦为企业拼搏的基层职员买单。

在这样的大环境下，还要人把工作当梦想，实在是太乌托邦了。一将功成万骨枯也罢，最无语的是，那将领或许不过平庸之辈，却还能功成。不思长进却还能左右逢源，让我老实不服气。

这种“发展”模式，维持不了多久。我潜心等待泡沫破灭的那刻。

<书籍> 狮城往事

前几个星期借了这本书，一天看几页，最近终于看完。作者的文笔普通，但笔下的故事却格外珍贵，故事背景的年代相隔大半个世纪，当年往事对我来说非常陌生，一如时下发展对前人来说匪夷所思一样。

从细致地描述日常生活的衣、食、住、行，到回忆二战前后困苦搏斗的岁月，笔者带读者“进入一段陌生却属于我们的岁月，走入一个模糊却属于狮城的空间”。

其实，这些往事虽然发生在狮城，却不是仅仅属于狮城人的记忆，而是马新共同的记忆。无论在英治时期还是在昭南时代，马新都是作为一个整体被看待的，在同一片天空呼吸，在同样的气息下生活，用同样的步伐前进，被系在同样的命运之轮。当然，这些不过是题外话。

尽管这些事看似与我毫无相关，但我却认为，对历史长河仅有断裂的认识，多少会扭曲对当下生活的体验和局势发展的判断。而近代，相较于古代，更贴近地影响着时下，也更重要，却往往仍未盖棺定论而迷糊不清，所以这也是为何我说：这些往事是格外珍贵的。